104學年度第二學期專題討論統計學術演講公告
統計碩士學位學程將於104年3月15日(星期二)舉辦統計學術演講，邀請到中央研究院統計科學研究所黃景祥特聘研究員蒞臨演講，
講題：Estimating lifetime medical costs from censored claims data
講員：黃景祥 特聘研究員 中央研究院統計科學研究所
時間：2016年3月15日星期二 下午 3：30 ~ 5：30
地點：臺灣大學博雅教學館408教室
摘要：
Cost-effectiveness analysis is a widely accepted approach to determine the comparative values of different health technologies for a specific condition, in both health and economic terms. Using incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for assessment, estimates of expected lifetime survivals and lifetime costs for each condition are usually needed. In practice, the survival data of followed-up patients were often censored with high rates and observed expenditures were incomplete. In this study, we propose using a semi-parametric extrapolation method for estimating lifetime survival rates. We extrapolate the lifetime monthly mean costs using a weighted average of mean expenditures of patients in their final years and months prior to their final years. The weights are functions of hazards which are estimated from the extrapolated lifetime survival rates. The expected lifetime cost can be estimated by summing the product of the estimated lifetime survival probabilities and lifetime monthly mean costs. We evaluate performance of the proposed approach using simulated data and empirical data. For demonstration, we use population-based claims data from the Taiwan National Health Insurance to establish cohorts of ischemic stroke and intracerebral hemorrhage and estimate the lifetime direct medical costs of first-ever stroke patients.
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